Thought for today...
God loves you whether you like it or not.
Here is my ranking of all 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. It's not based on what they did last season. It's how I think they will do this season combined with what the past has shown us.
Elite Without Question...
1) Patrick Mahomes - His regular season record is 50-13. His playoff record is 8-3. There is not a QB since 1974 with that good of a winning percentage with a minimum of 50 wins and only a couple of QBs with 50 wins have ever had a better winning percentage. He had a six game "slump" last year, so he's being overlooked this year which is putting a chip on his shoulder. Despite losing Tyreek Hill, he's ready to torch the NFL.
2) Josh Allen - If this ranking was based purely on passing skills, Allen would be a little lower, but you cannot discount his running ability and ability to extend the play. He just keeps getting better.
3) Aaron Rodgers - He's the 2-time defending MVP. He has lost most of his receivers, but he's not going in the tank. Expect the Packers to win a lot of games and expect Rodgers to play at an extremely high level.
4) Justin Herbert - He's only played two years, but he's the best looking young QB since Mahomes. He threw for over 5000 yards last year. I wouldn't bet against him doing it again.
5) Tom Brady - If this was a lifetime achievement award, Brady would be number 1, but he IS 45 years old, and his offensive line is questionable at best. Barring injury, he will still throw for a bunch of yards, but he will also have several chuck and duck moments.
6) Joe Burrow - Joe Cool. That's his demeanor. His confidence is contagious, and his receivers are as good of a group of pass catchers as there is in the NFL. He knows how to use them, plus his offensive line should be better.
7) Russell Wilson - He has been in the Elite Without Question group several times in the past, but he struggled at times last year, plus he's on a new team this year. He will do very well, but I don't know that he will set the league on fire this year. Watch out for next year though.
8) Lamar Jackson - He's as dangerous as they come. It's almost better to leave one of his receivers open and hope he misses them as opposed to covering them all and having him take off running. His lack of outstanding accuracy is the only reason I don't have him in the Elite Without Question category.
9) Matt Stafford - Most people have him higher, but the Rams escaped several games last year despite his high number of interceptions. Don't get me wrong. I'd be fine if he was my starting QB. I just think there are some better ones out there.
10) Derek Carr - Carr has pulled himself from the 15-20 range up into the top 10 in my opinion. He has more confidence now and having superstar WR Davante Adams will only help him.
11) Dak Prescott - When he gets hot, he can scorch defenses. The problem is he doesn't do it very often on the road. It's hard to make the top 10 when you struggle if the crowd isn't cheering you on.
12) Matt Ryan - Ryan played for the lowly Falcons for so long that we forget how good he can be. He's still a high level QB, and I think he's got another year or two before he falls off.
13) Kirk Cousins - Until last year, I wouldn't have put him in my top 20, but he had a super year last year, and he's still got awesome WR Justin Jefferson to catch his passes. I still don't like his wilting in the clutch, but he's not bad overall.
Young And Improving...
14) Kyler Murray - Most people have him much higher. I just don't see a lot of improvement from his rookie year. He was really good for about 10 games last year, but after that, he was not a very good QB at all. His playoff game against the Rams resulted in 137 yards and two interceptions. However, he has excellent scrambling skills and has the ability to improve greatly.
15) Tyler Lawrence - If you wrote a book about how to screw up a rookie QB, you would have driven to Jacksonville last year and taken lots of notes. The coaching staff was horrendous. Lawrence has Doug Pederson to coach him this year, so expect a big jump in his production. I don't buy that he will end up to be the second coming of John Elway, but he's got talent.
16) Mac Jones - His rookie year had ups and downs, but he is a good QB, and he's coachable. I would rank him even higher, but the Patriots coaching staff seems to be unsettled on who will call plays this year, and all of the candidates have been primarily defensive coaches. I just don't like it.
17) Jared Goff - He's not a bad QB at all. If he can get the right coaching, he can rise in these rankings. He went to a Super Bowl at a very young age, and you can't chalk ALL of that up to Sean McVay's coaching.
18) Jameis Winston - He's been around, but he's still only 28 years old. He has tremendous passing skills. He just needs to cut down on his turnovers. Expect him to have a good season and have the Saints in the playoff race.
19) Tua Tagovailoa - Last year, he was a dink and dunk QB. I think his offensive line was pretty bad, so he thought he had to throw the ball quickly. They should be better on the offensive line, and he has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to get open quickly in case he doesn't have a lot of time. Expect a good-sized jump in production from Tua this year.
20) Jalen Hurts - The good news is he's improving fast. The bad news is he has a LONG way to go. Hurts is just not very accurate at times. That can kill drives, but if he keeps improving, he can have the Eagles in contention in the relatively sorry NFC East.
Could Move Up...
21) Ryan Tannehill - He had a couple of really good years, but the bottom fell out in the playoffs against the Bengals. So, he drops to here, but he has a chance to rise again if his confidence isn't too shaken. I think his confidence will take a hit, so I have him ranked fairly low.
22) Trey Lance - Who knows where to rank this guy? He's got talent enough to be top 10, but I didn't see a lot of sustained drives in the preseason. I wouldn't argue with you if you had him a lot higher or a bit lower. We will see.
23) Davis Mills - Mills is the QB nobody thinks about because he plays for the lowly Texans, but if you check him out, he's not bad. If he can get a bit of an upgrade in the offensive line and another weapon at wide receiver, he can move up in the ranking.
24) Baker Mayfield - If he gets mad enough, he can have an excellent game, but it seems he has to have that chip on his shoulder to be any good. He might just torch the Browns in Week 1 and move up in the rankings, but I don't think his overall talent level won't allow him to be top 15.
25) Justin Fields - He's young and needs a lot of reps. His offensive line is very bad, and he doesn't have a lot of weapons. His skill level is 10-15, but I can't see him getting there this year.
26) Mitch Trubisky - What do we do with Trubisky? He looked awful at times in Chicago, but his overall record is 29-21. You can't be awful and have that kind of a record. He looked good in Buffalo when he played in preseason last year, and he's looked pretty good in Pittsburgh this year. We will see what happens when the real bullets fly.
27) Zach Wilson - First, he needs to avoid more injuries and get more experience. I'm not going to give up on him yet, but he needs to improve greatly this year.
Draft A New Quarterback...
28) Daniel Jones - The Giants keep trying to improve the offense to give him a better chance, but I just don't see it. He turns the ball over too much, and in my opinion, he just doesn't have the skills needed to win big in the NFL.
29) Carson Wentz - If he couldn't make the playoffs with the Colts roster on offense and defense, then enough already! He just keeps getting worse and worse. I would like to see the guy succeed, but I'm not counting on it.
30) Jacoby Brissett - He's a career backup, and that's exactly what he should be. As the old saying goes... You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
31) Marcus Mariota - When the Falcons went after Deshaun Watson and missed out, they angered Matt Ryan to the point where he wanted to be traded. The Falcons felt obliged to do so and were left with mostly scrubs to chose from. Enter Mr. Scrub. I don't see Mariota doing much at all this year.
32) Geno Smith - Is Tarvaris Jackson a starting quarterback? No? Then, Smith is the worst in the league. There's very little doubt in my mind.
One more quarterback exists to consider. He is Deshaun Watson. He's not going to start the season, but he really is the Browns starting QB. If you take the version of Deshaun Watson that stepped off the field at the end of 2020, I'd rank him somewhere around Russell Wilson or Lamar Jackson. But, he didn't play at all last year and won't play until the Browns 12th game this year. I watched him play in the one preseason game he played in, and he was somewhat tentative and just didn't look good at all. Even after he gets on the field, he will need to knock off a lot of rust. I do not see him hitting his stride until next year, and that's if his legal proceedings have not taken a lot out of him. That's a big "if" in my mind.
May God always be your number 1 draft pick!